An article appears in today's (4/23/20) Boston Globe notes there has been a spike of 11% in non-Coronavirus deaths in the past month. The article, titled "Coronavirus deaths in Mass. are likely far higher than what's been reported. Here's why," by Ryan, Lazar and Datar, asserts that that spike must be due to deaths that aren't being certified as arising from Coronavirus.
A second way to make sense of the data, and one that I believe is far more sound, is that it reflects the general decline in health care since the start of the Coronavirus panic. Since that time, hospitals and physicians are shut down to all but the sickest and have actively encouraged people to stay away from hospitals until/unless it is critical they be there. While that's not a big deal for someone who was planning on having elective surgery and probably it's too soon for that to have a real effect due to missed annual checkups and the like, what about those who are truly sick and simply aren't getting seen?
In fact, in the same issue of the Boston Globe, though presented only in an unrelated article (do reporters ever connect dots anymore?), Nancy L. Shendell-Falik, president of Baystate Medical Center in Springfield, MA is quoted: “We have seen patients, an 80 percent decline, with stroke symptoms — meaning speech impairment, visual changes — wait at home and not seek care. That was one month ago, a total of an 80 percent decline. Those patients are starting to arrive at Baystate Medical Center. They are seriously ill, and many of them have lifelong, debilitating consequences to waiting.”
Combined with the 11% increase in non-COVID-19 mortality, I'd call that your smoking gun.
While that's one way to look at the data, it doesn't really jive with anecdotal evidence from healthcare workers in the trenches, who have claimed that basically any death of a person who roughly fits the profile for Coronavirus mortality (elderly and/or with Coronavirus-related risk factors) is being attributed to the virus--often without testing to determine if the person actually has it.
A second way to make sense of the data, and one that I believe is far more sound, is that it reflects the general decline in health care since the start of the Coronavirus panic. Since that time, hospitals and physicians are shut down to all but the sickest and have actively encouraged people to stay away from hospitals until/unless it is critical they be there. While that's not a big deal for someone who was planning on having elective surgery and probably it's too soon for that to have a real effect due to missed annual checkups and the like, what about those who are truly sick and simply aren't getting seen?In fact, in the same issue of the Boston Globe, though presented only in an unrelated article (do reporters ever connect dots anymore?), Nancy L. Shendell-Falik, president of Baystate Medical Center in Springfield, MA is quoted: “We have seen patients, an 80 percent decline, with stroke symptoms — meaning speech impairment, visual changes — wait at home and not seek care. That was one month ago, a total of an 80 percent decline. Those patients are starting to arrive at Baystate Medical Center. They are seriously ill, and many of them have lifelong, debilitating consequences to waiting.”
Combined with the 11% increase in non-COVID-19 mortality, I'd call that your smoking gun.
My post-doctoral advisor, a dear friend, went into his doctor complaining of not being able to shake a feeling of tiredness. He showed no other symptoms. He was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer and died less than a month after that first visit. In today's paranoia driven society, he might well have not gone to the doctor at all. His case was unfortunate, and he was beyond saving once he was diagnosed. But there are going to be a lot of people in a similar situation--mild symptoms, severe underlying affliction--who are savable, but don't get diagnosed in time.
"I don't want to be a bother" and "I don't want to catch something" are the reasons a lot of people are not going to doctors right now. They've been scared into hunkering down in their homes. But some of those people desperately need to get to the doctor, and some of those people are going to die because they've been brainwashed by politicians and media and bad science into thinking that they may die if they step outside, and that they'll definitely die if they go to their doctor.
These people are the unintended consequences in this whole unforgivable unjustified mess.
Add to that the changes to healthy activities that self quarantining have brought: No visits to the gym, far more sitting, a lot more snacking, the stresses from being alone, the stresses from being stuck together 24/7. None of these benefit societal health, either.
These people are the unintended consequences in this whole unforgivable unjustified mess.
Add to that the changes to healthy activities that self quarantining have brought: No visits to the gym, far more sitting, a lot more snacking, the stresses from being alone, the stresses from being stuck together 24/7. None of these benefit societal health, either.
Politicians have asserted that f we don't shut down the economy, every Coronavirus death is blood on our hands. No. The Coronavirus, like the flu and other viruses that can turn deadly, will assuredly kill some small fraction of the population no matter what we do. We cannot protect everyone. But, if, as appears to be the case, the Coronavirus is not the killer that some have asserted using incomplete data, and is instead akin to "just another flu," then all the false panic and paranoia that the politicians have stirred up will have resulted in preventable deaths. That 11% in Massachusetts may be some of those deaths. And, if so, that blood is on their hands.
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Keep on topic!