Rick Bright and his "darkest winter" coronavirus narrative

Today, Dr. Rick Bright, an immunologist who worked for HHS until he was "reassigned," clawed back his (hopefully) final 15 minutes in front of Congress. Dr. Bright laid out a narrative that suggests that he was effectively demoted because he was a vigilant proponent for sanity in an administration hell-bent on allowing the nation to collapse in a morass of coronavirus-fueled death. Among his complaints: That he opposed the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine--a drug that has been promoted by researchers in France and elsewhere, and which Trump has frequently promoted as a possible cure--and that that was not tolerable to the Trump administration.

The actual reasons for Dr. Brith's demotion remain debatable, but this much is true: Dr. Bright falls squarely in the camp that believes we need to keep the economy in lockdown until or unless a cure is found--nevermind the consequences.

The what-is-he-smoking moment came when Dr. Bright exclaimed,
"The undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of (COVID-19) this fall, greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system.Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest Winter in modern history,"
Dr. Bright's steps would include a national testing strategy, more money for coronavirus education, ramping up essential equipment and supplies, and setting up a federal system to distribute equipment and supplies related to fighting the virus. Now, none of these are bad ideas, per se. The problem is that Dr. Bright wants to keep the economy effectively shut down until his wish list is in place.

But "the darkest Winter in modern history??"

Has Sweden, who have not shut down their economy, experienced the "darkest Spring in modern history?"

No. And, in fact, infection and mortality rates in Sweden are normalizing. Yet people like Dr. Bright want to hang on the idea that we need to continue to shut down society until every "i" is dotted. I guess that makes sense since these are Federal employees, not one of which has lost their job as a result of the mandates the issue.

The likely reality is that when business is finally allowed to reopen in the US, there will be a spike in infection and mortality rates. But, lest anyone forget, things were originally shut down not to stop the virus, but merely to "flatten the curve." That is, to spread out the infection so that hospitals were not overwhelmed in the early days of the pandemic. As it turned out, nearly every prediction of infection and mortality rates was far too high--some by orders of magnitude. The prediction of patients dying in the street never occurred and there's precious little evidence that it might ever have happened even if we had done nothing to flatten the curve.

Flattening the curve merely pushes the infection out. The country still needs to develop herd immunity, and until we do, the infection will continue to do what it does best: infect. So as we reopen business, it isn't just a prediction that infection and mortality rates will spike--it's a guarantee. All we've done by putting at least 20% of the country out of work is delay the spread. 

But is there any evidence that we'll then enter the darkest Winter in history? No.None whatsoever. This is the kind of assertion formulated to induce panic and to maintain government control on society. It's justification for a continuation of bad policy that has caused more destruction to quality of life around the world than anything in modern history.

If this is Dr. Bright's view, it's a good thing he was demoted.

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