One consequence of the coronavirus panicdemic has been the decimation of the airline industry. In the past couple of days, they've announced plans for how they will start to resume flying--and it isn't pretty. Among the changes: Everyone is going to have to wear masks, say goodbye to even the meter cabin service we had, you may need to ask permission to use the bathroom, and your frequent flyer status probably will get you absolutely no perks at the gate.
On top of all those come the real crushers: Airlines plan to fly far fewer flights and rely more heavily on a hub-and-spoke system, and the cost of flying is expected to go up at least 50% to account for planes that, by design, are not going to be flying full.
The good news: You probably won't have to deal with getting the middle seat, because that seat will not be sold. The bad news: You get to pay to keep that seat empty.
What does this all mean? Well, first, it means that flying, which hasn't been exactly a bed of roses in recent years, and certainly not since 9/11, will now be considerably less pleasant. On the professional sucks, sucks more and sucks like crazy scale used by the industry, we're probably moving towards a crazy- reading. It could get a bit worse, but the airlines are going to have to think hard to figure out how to do that. I am sure they are already hard at work on that, by the way.
The specifics of how it will suck are what's germane here. First off, if you are used to thinking of flying coast-to-coast as being a 5-6 hour journey, start to think of it as more of a 10-hour
journey, including the layover or two that you'll be stuck with, in the era of fewer flights. Say hello to double the chance for your flight to be delayed or canceled, and double the chances for your bags to be misdirected or lost. On the plus side, they say the Detroit airport is beautiful this time of year.
Second, forget the idea of "let's book ahead and get a cheap flight". There aren't going to be any cheap flights. You know that self-satisfied feeling you have when the business Walruses get on in business class and you think to yourself that you will get to the same place for 1/3 of what they just paid? Well, now you'll be paying their prices. For coach. Wearing a mask. With no legroom.
Alright, so air travel's going to suck. Badly. Yeah yeah. As if the quarantine hasn't been one long suckfest anyway. But think what that means in the broader scheme of things. Since the '60s, America (and the world, for that matter) has become increasingly "small", with far-flung cities not more than a few hours away from each other. It has allowed people to visit the world in increasing numbers. But it has also allowed families to redistribute themselves more broadly within the country. Mom and dad may be across the country, but that's not a big deal--you can visit them cheaply and efficiently. Or the corporate home office is in San Francisco, but you live in Boston. No big deal: Just fly out as necessary. And some people do this every week. So what if now, and for the foreseeable future, it becomes a big deal? WIll families start to feel the pull of living nearby, the way they did in the first half of the last century and times before that? Are remote business commutes dead?
We've grown up in an era where physical distance increasingly seemed negligible. We're now heading into an era where the opposite will be true. Eventually, the pandemic will either burn itself out, or we'll identify drugs or vaccines to deal with it. It may return each year, but it will be like the flu, not something that shuts down society. And air travel restrictions and limits will eventually relax. At some point, traffic will increase sufficiently to add more flight capacity, and maybe, after that, the hub and spoke system will give way to more long-distance non-stops, just like in the good old days of a few months ago. Maybe prices will even drop, eventually.
But will we ever, in our lifetime, return to the idea that anywhere in the US is not much more than a plentiful plane ride to anywhere else, and it's OK to live across the country from our loved ones, our aged parents and so on? Will businesses ever return to hiring fleets of road warriors, or will they largely replace that model with telecommuting?
When the quarantine is fully lifted, life will have a chance to return to normal. But I think there are some behaviors we have learned from the quarantine, and some lingering long-tail effects, that will permanently change society. This may be one of them.
On top of all those come the real crushers: Airlines plan to fly far fewer flights and rely more heavily on a hub-and-spoke system, and the cost of flying is expected to go up at least 50% to account for planes that, by design, are not going to be flying full.
The good news: You probably won't have to deal with getting the middle seat, because that seat will not be sold. The bad news: You get to pay to keep that seat empty.
What does this all mean? Well, first, it means that flying, which hasn't been exactly a bed of roses in recent years, and certainly not since 9/11, will now be considerably less pleasant. On the professional sucks, sucks more and sucks like crazy scale used by the industry, we're probably moving towards a crazy- reading. It could get a bit worse, but the airlines are going to have to think hard to figure out how to do that. I am sure they are already hard at work on that, by the way.
The specifics of how it will suck are what's germane here. First off, if you are used to thinking of flying coast-to-coast as being a 5-6 hour journey, start to think of it as more of a 10-hour
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| American check-in during quarantine |
Second, forget the idea of "let's book ahead and get a cheap flight". There aren't going to be any cheap flights. You know that self-satisfied feeling you have when the business Walruses get on in business class and you think to yourself that you will get to the same place for 1/3 of what they just paid? Well, now you'll be paying their prices. For coach. Wearing a mask. With no legroom.
Alright, so air travel's going to suck. Badly. Yeah yeah. As if the quarantine hasn't been one long suckfest anyway. But think what that means in the broader scheme of things. Since the '60s, America (and the world, for that matter) has become increasingly "small", with far-flung cities not more than a few hours away from each other. It has allowed people to visit the world in increasing numbers. But it has also allowed families to redistribute themselves more broadly within the country. Mom and dad may be across the country, but that's not a big deal--you can visit them cheaply and efficiently. Or the corporate home office is in San Francisco, but you live in Boston. No big deal: Just fly out as necessary. And some people do this every week. So what if now, and for the foreseeable future, it becomes a big deal? WIll families start to feel the pull of living nearby, the way they did in the first half of the last century and times before that? Are remote business commutes dead?
We've grown up in an era where physical distance increasingly seemed negligible. We're now heading into an era where the opposite will be true. Eventually, the pandemic will either burn itself out, or we'll identify drugs or vaccines to deal with it. It may return each year, but it will be like the flu, not something that shuts down society. And air travel restrictions and limits will eventually relax. At some point, traffic will increase sufficiently to add more flight capacity, and maybe, after that, the hub and spoke system will give way to more long-distance non-stops, just like in the good old days of a few months ago. Maybe prices will even drop, eventually.
But will we ever, in our lifetime, return to the idea that anywhere in the US is not much more than a plentiful plane ride to anywhere else, and it's OK to live across the country from our loved ones, our aged parents and so on? Will businesses ever return to hiring fleets of road warriors, or will they largely replace that model with telecommuting?
When the quarantine is fully lifted, life will have a chance to return to normal. But I think there are some behaviors we have learned from the quarantine, and some lingering long-tail effects, that will permanently change society. This may be one of them.
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Keep on topic!