Vaccinated for Covid? Ladders & guns are far bigger dangers to you than the virus

 In a recent interview with PBS, ProPublica's Caroline Chen pointed out that, based on current evidence, the statistical chance of someone who is fully vaccinated subsequently winding up hospitalized for Covid is 0.00005%. That's 5 in a million. Note that that's not the chance of dying. It's only the chance of being hospitalized. The chances of dying are roughly 9-15%, once you are hospitalized.

So, to put this all another way, your chances of dying from Covid if you are fully vaccinated are roughly 10% of 0.00005%, or 1 in 2,000,000. To put that in context, here are some of the yearly odds of death from other preventable (and not so much) issues:

Cause of Death	One Year Odds
Influenza (Flu)	1 in 4,951
Accidental Poisoning	1 in 5,243
Motor Vehicle Accident	1 in 8,303
Assault by Firearm	1 in 23,439
Exposure to Smoke, Fire & Flames	1 in 110,083
Drowning in a Swimming Pool	1 in 438,562
Fall on or From Ladder or Scaffolding	1 in 674,572
Air and Space Transport Accidents	1 in 879,482
Covid-19 Once Fully Vaccinated	1 in 2,000,000
Cataclysmic Storm	1 in 4,304,835
Lightning	1 in 14,224,671

Data from Insurance Information Institute and CDC report on Influenza 2017-2018. 

Study that table carefully. If you're fully vaccinated, you have more to fear from a car accident, being randomly assaulted with a gun, dying in a fire, or going down in a plane than you do from dying from Covid-19. Now, of course, Covid-19 death is twice as likely as dying in something like a Sunami, and 7 times more likely than being struck down by lightning. But you're also 40x less likely to die from Covid-19 than the Flu. 

So, then, why are politicians and politically attached government scientists continuing to rail about double masking, triple masking, and how we should all be really really really careful?

One can only imagine that power is delicious, and hard to give up. Not to mention the fact that those who are asserting that you'd better continue to stay home live on the government dole in the form of jobs that are never in jeopardy from lockdowns. (Also not to mention invites to the French Laundry on the DL). No one needs to make hard decisions when it's not their livelihood or mental health on the line. 

At this point, the only ones who might be concerned about catching covid or whether you're masked up would be those who have decided not get vaccinated. Because in almost every part of the US now, there's more vaccine available than people rushing to get vaccinated. If you're in the at-risk group and you haven't gotten your vaccine, you might want to think again. Or else take your chances, but don't expect everyone else to clip their lives for your benefit. 

Moving on to the consternation about vaccination cards: Why? Who cares? Why do we need them? If you're vaccinated, you're not at risk from anyone who isn't. And if you aren't vaccinated, you will just need to assume there are probably liars out there, and act accordingly. 

As for the manufactured hand-wringing about variants from the UK, India, and elsewhere: Well, it's always important to keep a lookout for signs of viral mutations that circumvent the existing vaccine. But, so far, even the mutants that appear to be more infectious are not able to get around the immunity formed from the current vaccine. The infection rate is irrelevant if the virus can't get past your immune system, and all signs are that the current vaccines stop all known variants of the virus. It's reasonable and likely that, eventually, variants of the virus will emerge that are less effectively addressed by the current vaccines, and boosters will be required--exactly as is the case for influenza. Each year, you get your flu shot (or don't) to address mutations that appear over the winter. Right now, based on a very substantial history with similar viruses, there's no need for panic. 

The Summer looks bright for all who let science be their guide.